The speaker is caught in an anniversary of grief. Every year on the 2nd of October, the cold weather arrives and drags them back to something, or someone, they haven't been able to let go of. The poem doesn't say exactly what happened, but the title's "Helen" and the closing question, "what would she think of me now?", suggest a loss or a relationship that still defines how the speaker sees themselves.
The repetition of "2 of October" at the start works like a heartbeat or a stuck record. The speaker says nothing has changed, that "not a single day has passed." Even the cold breeze down the spine feels physical, as if the memory lives in the body. The tone is tired and resigned. The speaker keeps promising to deal with it "next year" and admits that healing might never come. The mood is quiet, heavy, and honest, and the last line, with its mix of longing and self-doubt, leaves it unresolved.